Strategy for Shares and Stocks Investment

To any regular trader, a question often comes up in mind, ‘how to invest?’ Please do not confuse it with the novice asking this same question.  I am talking of all those people who are regular traders/investors, the question that actually troubles them is, ‘how to invest to maximize gains?’

That’s what I am talking about. As much as risk and return are supposed to go hand in hand (though I personally do not believe much in this adage), it is time and money that start showing a negative correlation at times. Let me illustrate this with an example.

Paresh buys Hindustan Unilever stock sometime in 2009 for Rs. 270. Paresh’s thought at the time buying is to go for a stock which will give maximum returns. He even sees the stock rising in price. One fine day after a month, it reaches 320 Rs. He earns an 18% absolute return within 1 month, which would mean 18*12. i.e. 216% hypothetically. But, still he keeps his hopes high and waits for the stock to rise up. Speculating that the share price would go up further, he waits and watches. He finally sells it for Rs. 370 sometime in 2011. He is against short term trading and believes in sticking to one company’s stock for a long time. He gets a return of 37% in 2 years which comes to 18.5%per annum. Compare 18.5% to 216%!!

The effect of compounding has been neglected in both the cases.

Now, what was better? If you sell in short time, there is uncertainty that the stock might do good in future. If you trade short term with profits of 1% or 3% over a 2/3 days or weeks’ time, the effort required is high. Also, to continually trade in different stocks, one has to understand that one needs to research a lot beforehand. How much time can you put in searching for better companies or scrips, especially if you are someone can’t devote time to this in office timings?

Now, consider another scenario like that of Paresh. He was lucky enough to get a good company but what if it did not go beyond a certain point? How long can one hold a stock? There is opportunity cost involved here, i.e. the money could have been invested in some other stock yielding a better return. There needs to be some time constraint. It doesn’t make sense to stick to one stock for such a long time especially when it refuses to move.

This time vs money battle confuses Paresh and he wants an optimum way out. Also, his job does not allow him enough free time to research new stocks and trading every day.  So, he has to invest in only a good company after researching in minimum time possible.

There is one single simple thing that would work for him or anyone else.

Set a short term target and sell it quickly.

Yes, that is what works. By short term target, I mean a defined return percentage or share value. For most people who are not daily investors, getting a return higher than inflation or a fixed deposit does the job. So, consider you decide to earn a per annum return of minimum 25%. In reality, it might seem difficult to many but by buying and selling fast, one can easily achieve this.

Buy a share of your choice (irrespective of what others say), say share of company X and sell it the moment of it gives a 6% to 8% return. No looking beyond that. 6 months down the line, you might see it would have given a 20% return, but no point regretting this. As you sell this, buy another with company Y and sell it with a return of 6 to 8% immediately. Just 4 such deals a year and you have a earned a minimum 24% return!!

Believe me, you will get more than 4 deals like these throughout a year. It looks all complicated but by not speculating and being content with seemingly smaller returns, one can easily earn decent amount despite playing it safe.

It is important to understand the upward or downward rally which could give high returns in less time. Do not ever underestimate time. 

A stock that has gone up by 4% today is very likely to go up tomorrow. It slowly reaches an almost stable level of say, only 1% up and then starts falling down. It is important to understand this generally found empirical observations which help in getting maximum returns!

Best of luck with your investing!

Tripalong - MakeMyTrip's Attempt at 'Social Travel! Would It Work?

Keeping with its tradition of innovative services, MakeMyTrip has come up with Tripalong, a fun way to travel as claimed by them. It is also called as 'social travel' and is a silent revolution which might turn out to be a big boom in future. Just imagine, how travel has only increased over time, be it due to relocation, study abroad and other reasons. In fact, data shows that travel is the most shopped item online globally, standing at 65% in India. The number of transactions or volume might be low, but the value is high. What was the value of you last air ticket as compared to your online spend on books or apparels?!? :) And NASDAQ listed MakeMyTrip being the leader gets tremendous advantage of the same.

At the same time, imagine the number of people on Facebook and Twitter during their travel. In fact, all social networking websites are all into geosocial networking as well (Like Foursquare, Google Latitude, Facebook Places, Twiiter location checkin, etc.) What if we connect the dots? That's where social travel comes and MakeMyTrip is truly a pioneer in this space with the help of Tripalong. 

Tripalong simply tells you who all from your Facebook or Linkedin might be with you or at the city/airport at the time of your travel. More interestingly, Tripalong also gives you info on people who are going to be in your flight and shows their profile. This also means, your profile would be visible to others who are travelling at the same time.

If interested, you may meet them or sit together! That's great for anyone willing to network or date. YouTube and Yahoo! Answers were criticized for being more of a social networking and dating website than adhering to their purpose. I foresee an unintended consequence like that in case of Tripalong, it might turn out to be a dating site!

It is subjective whether a person would like to meet new people or not. Access to services like Tripalong would be more welcome by those who are social and have active presence on Facebook. So, we can expect a chunk of youngsters coming on this. 

Image Credit: Laughing Squid

However, imagine a single girl getting requests from a complete stranger on the service to sit together with a boy. The boy knows the flight time and name of the girl... It is like exposing yourself to strangers completely. Considering the hullabaloo about privacy these days (criticism surprisingly comes from most people who have never read a privacy policy of any website), Tripalong is not very likely to take off. 

As a matter of fact, I wonder why do people add unknown people or untrustworthy people on Facebook and LinkedIn? Life would be so much more fun if you felt free in meeting any of your FB or LinkedIn connections. But, most people who have become vary of privacy lately (the fad of privacy) would not give this a try at all. There is an option to sync your own MakeMyTrip account as well, which will automatically update your flight schedule in Tripalong profile, of course with your permission. And please note that anyone can update their flight schedule, it is not necessary to have booked from MakeMyTrip.

On the contrary, Twitter is not connected to the account. I guess, celebrities would face a huge problem if their travel plans all became public. Also, Twitter does not have a two way interaction like FB and LinkedIn. Somebody may follow you, but you may not follow them back.

A positive side which I see to social travel (assuming it would be adopted by people) is for the sales and marketing folks. The business development executives can know when a CXO person is travelling and try to get into that flight. Just for the meeting, they might make the trip which would have lesser cost than arranging a meeting at another city with 2/3 days of stay. But, something like this is not going to work for long.

Due to various other reasons, I would say Tripalong is for those people who are travel enthusiasts, for those who are willing to take a risk and keep their travel plan out in the open for the world to see and meet new people. It is good to see that MMT is not spending money on publicizing this but keeping it for the enthusiast to explore. Reminds me of CouchSurfing, which was never intended for the general audience but only the enthusiasts!

Talking about social travel, an interesting info-graphic explains the social travel revolution theoretically using numbers. It does not talk however, on why social travel never took off anywhere in the world!  

Air India! Can We See You in Air?

The news is quite big. Air India has successfully managed PR and media this time by creating a fuss about its order of Boeing 787s! And what it claims, it could bring the Maharaja days of Air India back!

Seriusly, Air India has been a premier service provider; still has one of the best aircraft with business class amenities. Even flying on economy gives a feel of business class with its navigation information system right in front of you on certain aircraft. But, the fact is, Air India’s maharaja days existed only when there were the only player in the market!! After the onset of Naresh Goel’s Jet Airways, Air India had some competition. It tasted water and had its feet on ground only when the competitive low cost players like Deccan, IndiGo and now, GoAir and Spicejet taking their market away.

From a market share of 100% in the days of License Raj, they have come down to a market share of approximately 16%. The market leaders are IndiGo at 1^st position (recently at the first position by a whisker), Jet Airways at 2nd spot (with almost the same as IndiGo at 26%, only a few points lesser) and SpiceJet at 3^rd spot with 18%.

Image Courtesy: WittySparks

No doubt, Air India and Kingfisher’s tumultuous times, the tatkal scam in Indian Railways, the growing influence of touts in railway bookings and the inefficient not so sophisticated bus operators have made it compulsory for many a people to travel by air for peace and mind and convenience. No wonder, biggest beneficiaries are Jet and IndiGo with their fleet. GoAir has only 11 aircraft and SpiceJet also with not a very significant number.

No matter how great the Boeing aircraft might be, the point is, it needs to be in the hands of competent organization, or competent management, to be precise. Hand over this same aircraft to Southwest in USA, Jet Airways or IndiGo, you would see some very different results. The babudom , the bureaucracy of being into government control is what keeps Air India in problems, just nothing else.

It is agreed that Air India needs to ply to some unprofitable destinations which private airlines are not willing to go as they are not so lucrative. Routes like say, Porbandar – Mumbai, Jamnagar – Mumbai or Nanded – Mumbai are understood. But, what about all other gifts that it enjoys which could easily balance these problems? 

The aircraft fleet, the scale of operations, the international reach finds no parallel in the industry. In fact, in the international arena, they could easily make money if they wished to. The problem remains, ‘if’. It is a matter of willingness than anything else.

Why this company is so oblivious to some commonly followed best practices in the industry? Are the people at the top deaf and dumb? The organizational culture is the very root cause of all problems, to put it in McKinsey style!

Aren’t the private airlines not earning profit by plying into tier – 2 cities? How many brain cells does it take to understand that a Jamnagar Mumbai flight can also travel further to Bangalore, Trivandrum and Goa and come back the same day to Jamnagar, saving airport parking, keeping the aircraft in air for maximum time and optimum utilisation of million dollar aircraft?

There have been just problems and problems around. Air India's website offers fares lower than what are displayed on MakeMyTrip and other such online travel agents (OTA). Why can't they display the same on all OTAs? Same is the case with Jet. But, look at IndiGo, GoAir and SpiceJet, the smarter ones now. Their fare on the airline website is the same shown on all OTAs. Half of AI's potential customers do not book because their fares as displayed on OTAs are higher and most will look to book the airline with lowest cost.

And wonder what is youth, military, senior citizens, VIP, politicians and what not quotas are present in their booking system! How can it go profitable if it keeps up with these kind of reservations even in case of bookings?

The biggest beneficiary behind government funding Air India despite the operational inefficiency has to be the great American aircraft maker, Boeing!! Sure, they are smiling!

What is Competition? An Out of the Box Approach!

This article is taken from Wall Street Journal's business section where Dr. YLR murthy of IIM Bangalore has written this article. The article was written in February 2010 but could still be found be found relevant. It explains the market approach to competition in an excellent manner.
The article can also be accessed at WSJ's website. 
After reading this, you might well understand why red ocean strategy, i.e. fighting tooth and nail with your competitor military style is no more relevant. Threats from substitutes has forced many a companies to venture into blue ocean strategy, i.e. to create demand by launching innovative products, thus creating a market. More on this in later blog posts.

Who sells the largest number of cameras in India?

Your guess is likely to be Sony, Canon or Nikon. The answer is: None of the above. The winner is Nokia, whose main line of business in India is not cameras but cellphones.

The reason is that cameras bundled with cellphones are outselling standalone cameras. Now, what prevents the cellphone from replacing the camera outright? Nothing at all.

Try this. Who runs the biggest music business in India? The answer is Airtel. By selling caller tunes (that play for 30 seconds) Airtel earns more than music companies do by selling albums.

Airtel is not in the music business. It is the mobile service provider with the largest subscriber base in India. That sort of a competitor is difficult to detect and even more difficult to beat. By the time you have identified him, he has already gone past you. But if you imagine that Nokia and Bharti (Airtel's parent) are breathing easy, you couldn't be further from the truth.

Nokia has reportedly acknowledged that it missed the smart-phone bus. It admits that Apple's iPhone and Google's Android can make life difficult for it in the future. But you never thought Google was a mobile company, did you? If these illustrations mean anything, it is that there is a bigger game unfolding. It is not so much about mobile or music or camera or emails.

Image Credit: South Carolina State House Report
Have you noticed that petrol bills get higher and phone bill gets cheaper these days!

The "Mahabharat" (the great Indian epic battle) in this context is: "What is tomorrow's personal digital device?" And, a related question: "Who is my competitor?"

In 2008, who was the toughest competitor to British Airways for international flights in India? Singapore Airlines? Indian Airlines? Maybe, but there is a more interesting answer: The videoconferencing services of Hewlett-Packard and Cisco.

Senior information technology executives in India and abroad were compelled by their headquarters to use videoconferencing to keep travel costs in check. Of course, there could be a rebound in travel. But to think that the airlines will be back to their previous business post-recession is something I would not bet on. In the short term, yes. In the long term, it is a resounding 'no'.

Remember, if there is one place where Newton's law of gravity is applicable besides physics it is in electronic hardware, where prices consistently fall. Between 1977 and 1991, prices of the now-dead VCR crashed to one third of their original levels in India. PC prices also dropped. If this trend repeats itself, then videoconferencing prices will also crash. Imagine the fate of airlines then.

India has two passions. Films and cricket. The two markets were distinctly different. So were the icons. The cricket gods were Sachin and Sehwag. The film gods were the Khans (Aamir Khan, Shah Rukh Khan etc). That was when cricket was fundamentally test cricket or at best 50-over cricket.

Then came the Indian Premier League and the two markets collapsed into one. IPL brought cricket down to 20 overs, reducing the game to the length of a three-hour movie. Cricket became a competitor to film. Desperate multiplex owners requisitioned the rights for screening IPL matches at movie halls to hang on to the audience. If the IPL were to become the mainstay of cricket, films would have to sequence their releases so as to not clash with IPL matches. As far as the audience is concerned, both are a three-hour "tamasha" (entertainment). Cricket season might push films out of the market.

Look at the products that vanished from India in the last 20 years. When did you last see a black and white movie? When did you last use a fountain pen? When did you last type on a typewriter? The answer for all the above is "I don't remember!"

One final illustration. Some 20 years ago, what were Indians using to wake them up in the morning? An alarm clock, that monster of mechanical springs. It had to be physically wound up every day. It made so much noise that it woke you -- and the rest of the colony. 

What do we use today? Cellphones. An entire category of clocks practically disappeared without warning.

The boss of an IT company once said something interesting about the animal called competition. He said "Have breakfast …or…. be breakfast"! That sums it up rather neatly.

What is Wrong with Indian Aviation?

Looking at the content found relevant to aviation on mediawebsites these days, it really remains a question, what is so wrong with all these companies suffering loss. Come on, 2 of them earn profit, 2 are in near break-even points and 2 of them have almost vanished in air (oh, not in air!)

Primarily, there are 6 major airlines in India carrying passenger traffic. Viz., Air India, Jet Airways, IndiGo, SpiceJet, Kingfisher and Go Air.

Air India, being a government owned entity is no doubt in loss and would continue to be as long as it is with government. Kingfisher has not witnessed a single quarter of profit but has dare to touch new heights by introducing international flights and aplenty of in-flight entertainment. On the contrary, the more quarters people have, United Spirits and United Breweries experience a great quarter! :D

IndiGo, GoAir are not publicly listed entities and thus, all their profit reports are to be taken with a pinch of salt.

SpiceJet and Jet Airways, are on and off with profits and loss like heads and tails every quarter. However, I do not understand with all of them hiring IIM grads, what really goes wrong? Aviation is oft discussed industry in B-Schools across the globe. SouthWest Airlines and RyanAir case studies are something that every MBA grad has gone through.

Image Credit: The 2010 Photography Project 

Just to answer a simple question, what are the critical success factors for an airline? It would boil down to following things: 

Low turnaround time: i.e. The airlines should be in air for maximum time possible which brings in revenue. Minimum time parked in hangars at airports means lesser charge to be paid to airport.

Higher Occupancy: Yes, the aircraft needs to be in air for maximum time possible, but of course, with maximum passengers in it. If it starts flying with lesser number of passengers, imagine the kind of boomerang it would be in terms of revenue!

Sure, there are many other best practices that these airlines could follow learning from there western counterparts. But, it is more of a will than anything else!

Howsoever good practices these airlines would follow, there are problems in the external environment that they face. We must discount all Indian airlines for this. Their costs are definitely one of the highest in the world (jet fuel is costliest in India) and they are in pursuit of offering one of the lowest costs in the world.

Some best practices followed globally in the airline industry would be followed in a different article. However, having the same kind of aircraft, smart employee management, no complication of classes, minimum weight on aircraft, using smaller airports for saving cost (not applicable in India though), collecting waste from customers, one flight going to multiple destinations, low turnaround time, timeliness, high occupancy with help of codesharing, lease of aircraft, total productive maintenance, etc. would be helpful for any airline. I would love to elaborate on this in a different article.

BTW, based on any random parameters of your choice, who is your favourite airliner? I personally love Jet Airways. Be it JetKonnect, JetLite or the usual Jet Airways flight, I do not differentiate much. IndiGo is a public favourite but I find it the best one among all the low cost ones. Indigo and SpiceJet give a feel of travelling in a government state transport bus, Jet, Air India and Kingfisher give a very good feel and GoAir does not make you feel that you are travelling in a low cost carrier. But, Jet Airways gets the vote for service, convenience and one of the most aesthetically appealing (the image does some justice probably) air hostesses! :D

Why Working For An Indian Company Doesn't Work!

Most Indians have a dream to work for a foreign multinational. It is beyond understanding why is it really so?

Having experienced working in an American company and an Indian company, both publicly listed and more than $1 billion in turnover (revenue), I have my own unique experiences. I had discussed this with a lot of colleagues and I couldn’t really come to any conclusion. The only solid inference that I could come down to is, culture.

There is a huge difference between western professional culture and Indian work culture.

Western culture has historically been individualist and America is known for its very high level of individualism. I guess that helps a lot when it comes to professional sphere of life, ie work.

Innovation has historically happened from individualist societies. Individualist societies have also been one of the happiest countries in the world, whatever survey you might consider or experience empirical evidence for the same.

Image Credit: Bottoms Up!

Hence, I think it is pointless to understand when many Indians complain, or rather talk on stuff like, ‘the western world does not enjoy or they are not happy people’.

Just a few pointers on the basic stuff that I intend to write upon, the difference between American and Indian firms…

American/Western firms:

•        More importance given to a person’s professional life than personal life
•        Timings are secondary, work is primary
•        Flexibility when it comes to leaves
•        Objectivity everywhere
•        More respect for the individual
•        Efforts always on to make a ‘fun workplace’
•        Devoid of hierarchy
•        No issues with regards to compensation, pay on a higher side
•        International travel encouraged
•        Autonomy/decentralization; more power to employees
•        Work hard Monday to Friday
•        Firing the non-performers

Yes, for most who have been familiar to this debate must have realized that this is purely a contrast to what Indian firms are. In fact, just write the opposite sentence of what you read for American firms above and you will inevitably land up writing characteristics of Indian firms.

Take reputed Indian companies like Tata Group and Reliance, even they are no exception this behavior of Indian firms. A few have revamped their business processes and operations and are scaling to meet the standards set by foreign multinationals. But, they are worth counting on fingers, say like ICICI Bank. They are typically young start-up companies and are listed on NASDAQ or NYSE. A case in point is MakeMyTrip, a young Indian company consistently rated as one of the best places to work in India.

Now, I will elaborate on the characteristics of an Indian company…

Indian firms:

• ·        More importance given to a person’s personal life than professional life

In a collectivist society like India, people love to gossip, talk behind each other’s back. ‘Ah, you know she has an extra marital affair going on’ is more important for them than knowing how well performing and helpful the employee might be.

• ·        Timings are primary, work is secondary

You got to swipe in at 8:30 am in the morning and swipe out only after 6 pm in the evening. Those are the official timings and one has to abide by it, come what may. What happens in the midst of those 9.5 hours is not so important. Compare and contrast this with American firms where an employee’s presence for just 3 hours is also OK at times. But, get the work done, no other problems.

• ·        No flexibility on leaves

I cite the example of Tata group in this. Their leave system is just weird. There are only 12 casual leaves and 15 sick leaves that are allowed per year. Of course, one cannot apply for ‘sick leave’ in advance! In case of casual leaves, suppose there is a Sunday and Monday off. An employee decides to take 2 leaves on Saturday and Tuesday off and enjoy a long weekend. Going by the Tata’s ethics, it is not counted as 2 days off but 4 days off!! Lesser said, the better. Oh, and I forgot to mention, Saturdays are working days in Indian firms!!! God knows what they expect from their employees on the 4 hours of work on a Saturday.

• ·        Subjectivity everywhere

Guess this has again got more to do with the collectivist nature of society. A female boss finds a female subordinate smoking, drinking and coming to office in flashy hours. ‘Oh, she must not need a promotion ever, she is already rich enough!’ That is the kind of stuff that DOES happen.

• ·        Less respect for the individual

No matter what culture of the country says, life of an individual is not looked towards as something very important. He must say, ‘Sir’ to his boss or else face the problems of being in boss’ bad books!!

• ·        Efforts always on for a ‘dull workplace’

Everyone keeps a mask and tries to be serious in their work while in office. The fact of the matter is, it is pointless to expect employees to do some serious brain itching work for 9.5 hours a day in weekdays and for 5 hours on Saturday. Although employees may chitchat around, everyone is willing to show that we are serious. The boss will keep surfing internet for the entire day, but wants to keep a serious ‘computer face’ as if he is working on some complex spread sheets.

• ·        Hierarchy everywhere

The subordinate must say, ‘Sir’ every time or else he might face unforeseen problems in his life! The juniors get bored of saying the word, ‘Sir’ hundreds of times in a day. Compare and contrast with American firms, where the junior most 20 years old can address the senior 60 year old by his first name!

• ·        Pay less, pay less

The business communities are known for their stingy behaviour when it comes to paying their employees. American firms would simply pay more and save on attrition, employee insurance, training costs, etc. Indians firms love to lose their employees, waste time in interviews, searching for new candidates, etc. Most western firms pay higher and recruit less number of employees for more efficiency.

• ·        International travel!   :O  

Oh, it is such a high cost to send employees on an international assignment.  They would love to look at the cost, but not at the returns it could bring in return. Sending employees onsite to client locations in USA or other countries is discouraged at every possible junction!

• ·        Bureaucracy/decentralization

For any new proposal, say an outbound activity for employees, approvals are required from 10 different people. The appointments with them would take time, followed by everyone’s suggestion, budget issues and what was planned for say, 1 September would get executed in October last week. Red tape is so dear to hearts!!

• ·        Saturdays working

I suppose that speaks it all! Saturdays would have 5 hours of work where no one is in a mood to work. Virtually, nothing happens on a Saturday but employees have to come to office with restrained eyes and thinking about their friends working in American who are enjoying slumber.

• ·        Do not fire the non-performers

      Non-performers should not necessarily be fired. Instead, the people whom you hate, those who are in       bad books should be fired. Leave aside performance, that’s secondary. The senior and old people who are working from years or decades in a company should be promoted, leave aside the young performers. Respect to elderly, eh!!